Ebola outbreak in West Africa, Updated ECDC Risk Assessment
Since the start of the outbreak affecting four West African countries there have been more than 6 500 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), of which more than 3 000 people are reported to have died, according to reports from the WHO. ECDC has updated its rapid risk assessment on the outbreak given a number of modelling projections of the outbreak have been published in recent weeks.
Since the start of the outbreak affecting four West African countries there have been more than 6 500 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD), of which more than 3 000 people are reported to have died, according to reports from the WHO. ECDC has updated its rapid risk assessment on the outbreak given a number of modelling projections of the outbreak have been published in recent weeks. The transmission risk of Ebola in Europe remains extremely low. The capacity to detect and confirm cases of Ebola virus in the EU is considered to be sufficient to interrupt any possible local transmission of the disease early.
Projections made by the different models of the outbreak published in recent weeks all indicate an increasing trend in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone in the coming months. These projections should be regarded as indicative of possible trends and not as exact predictions. All the models conclude that without significant additional interventions, and changes to people’s behaviour, thousands of people could be infected.
Cumulative reported cases and modelling studies, Ebola outbreak, West Africa
Source: RRA: Outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. Fifth update, 29 September 2014
“The current Ebola outbreak is unprecedented, which will require an unprecedented effort to bring it under control. As a doctor it has been welcoming to see the reaction, and in particular, the dedication and professionalism of the public health community.
ECDC as a scientific organisation closely studied the recent modelling predictions in our risk assessment to better understand what impact these may have, especially in Europe. Due to the adequate capacity to detect and confirm cases of Ebola virus in the EU, the transmission risk of Ebola in Europe is extremely low”, said ECDC Director Dr Marc Sprenger. The evolving outbreak of EVD in recent months increases the likelihood that residents and travellers to the EVD-affected countries will be exposed to infected or ill persons. However, the risk of infection for residents and visitors to the affected countries through exposure in the community is considered low if they adhere to the recommended precautions.
Risk of importation to the EU is linked to the number of patients presenting with symptoms and seeking medical attention in the EU.
The risk of Ebola viruses spreading from an EVD patient who arrives in the EU as result of a planned medical evacuation is considered extremely low. If a symptomatic case of EVD presents in an EU Member State, secondary transmission to caregivers in the family and in healthcare facilities cannot be ruled out. Once the possibility of EVD has been recognised and healthcare providers have taken precautions to stop transmission, the risk of spread is reduced to a minimum.
Read more
