Dengue risk assessment for mainland EU/EEA
Dengue is an Aedes-borne disease widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions. Globally, the virus is predominantly transmitted by the Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes. Aedes albopictus is established in a large part of Europe. Aedes aegypti is established notably in Cyprus, around the Black Sea and in the outermost region (OR) of Madeira.
Dengue is not endemic in mainland EU/EEA and the vast majority of the cases are travellers infected outside of mainland EU/EEA. When the environmental conditions are favourable, in areas where the competent vectors are established, viraemic travel-related cases may generate a local transmission of the virus, as demonstrated by the sporadic events of dengue virus transmission since 2010. According to the data in the scientific literature, the ambient temperature is one of the most important environmental factors influencing the mosquito-borne transmission of dengue virus. The optimal daily average temperature for dengue virus transmission by Ae. albopictus in temperate zones of the northern hemisphere is at 24 – 26 °C; however, transmission might occur within the temperature range of 12 – 30 °C [1].
The environmental conditions in the areas of the EU/EEA where Ae. albopictus or Ae. aegypti are established are currently becoming favourable for mosquito activity and virus replication in mosquitoes; therefore, locally acquired transmissions might occur when conditions become favourable in early summer.
References:
- Gizaw Z, Salubi E, Pietroniro A, Schuster-Wallace CJ. Impacts of climate change on water-related mosquito-borne diseases in temperate regions: A systematic review of literature and meta-analysis. Acta Trop. 2024 Oct;258:107324. Available at: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/39009235