1. Home
  2. About ECDC
  3. What we do
  4. ECDC Foresight Programme

ECDC Foresight Programme

The ECDC Foresight Programme

The COVID-19 pandemic underlined that disease prevention and control is strongly influenced by a wide range of factors in addition to science and technology. The challenges experienced in responding to the pandemic highlighted blind spots in public health systems that affect their preparedness and resilience. It therefore became clear that public health institutions need to look wider outside their direct area of work and further ahead in time to be ready for serious cross-border threats to health in the future. Indeed, the importance of developments in, for example, geopolitics and governing structures, climate and biodiversity, societal polarisation and inequalities, for the effective prevention and control of emerging and established infectious diseases has been shown by the challenges faced during the pandemic and in responding to other threats over the last decades.

Building on these lessons learnt, the mandate of ECDC was amended in 2022 and calls for bolstering anticipation capacity and a broadening of factors to take into account – including social, economic, climatic and environmental factors. Recognising the value of using strategic foresight for this, ECDC initiated the ECDC Foresight Programme in 2022. The ECDC Foresight Programme is a cross-cutting strategic programme aimed to inform strategic decisions and policy in the area of infectious disease prevention and control. Its goals include to:

  • assess the implications for EU/EEA public health systems of large-scale changes and their indirect impacts to the operating environment;
  • increase the understanding of the inter-relationships between different drivers of the infectious disease threat landscape and key factors impacting public health, including environmental, demographic and socio-economic factors;
  • identify priorities for public health system resilience, preparedness, policy, research, training and workforce development;
  • improve futures literacy and build foresight capacity in ECDC and its partners in the Member States.
Foresight Model

What is strategic foresight?

Strategic foresight is about exploring possible futures in a structured and functional way, typically combining several forward-looking approaches, systems thinking and interdisciplinary intelligence-gathering. It systematically connects diverse sources of evidence and expertise with creativity and interaction to bring together different perspectives about the future, thereby reducing blind spots. Strategic foresight is done to anticipate change and its implications, so as to take actions in the present to better prepare for change.

Listen to the podcast to find out more