Risk assessment on COVID-19, 10 August 2020

Risk assessment

As countries regained control of transmission and alleviated the burden on healthcare, many measures were relaxed or removed to allow for a more viable way of life with the virus in circulation. Subsequently, a recent increase in COVID-19 cases has been reported in many EU/EEA countries. 

What is the risk of further escalation of COVID-19 in the countries that have reported a recent increase in COVID-19 cases, as of 10 August 2020? 

In EU/EEA countries and the UK where a recent increase in cases has been reported:

  • The risk of further escalation of COVID-19 is high in countries that have also had an increase in hospitalisations, providing a strong indication that there is a genuine increase in transmission occurring. For these countries, the overall risk of escalation is very high if they do not implement or reinforce multiple measures, including physical distancing measures and contact tracing, and have sufficient testing capacity.
  • The risk of further escalation of COVID-19 is high for the countries reporting no increase in hospitalisations but having seen an increase in test positivity (if testing capacity is sufficient and intensity has remained stable), suggesting increasing levels of transmission. For these countries, the overall risk of escalation is very high if they do not implement or reinforce multiple measures, including physical distancing measures and contact tracing.  
  • The risk of further escalation of COVID-19 is moderate-to-high for those countries reporting no increase in hospitalisations or test positivity (if testing capacity is sufficient and intensity has remained stable). The countries that have multiple physical distancing measures in place should conduct local risk assessments to better understand the groups or settings driving the increase in cases and to determine which measures should be in place or strengthened. 

What is the risk of further escalation of COVID-19 across all EU/EEA countries and the UK, as of 10 August 2020? 

  • The risk of further escalation of COVID-19 is moderate for countries that continue to implement and enforce multiple measures, including physical distancing, and have sufficient contact tracing and testing capacity.
  • The risk of further escalation of COVID-19 is very high for countries that do not implement or enforce multiple measures, including physical distancing, and have insufficient contact tracing and testing capacity. 

Read more

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