Following reports of a human fatality due to highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) virus infection in China’s Guangdong province, the European Commission requested an update to the assessment of risk of human-to-human transmission occurring. ECDC does not consider that there is any change to the previous assessments that the risk for EU/EEA countries is very low.
ECDC published an update of its previous rapid risk assessment on Swine-origin triple reassortant influenza A(H3N2) viruses in North America. This rapid risk assessment updates that of 29 November 2011, with a focus on the epidemiological information and a report on progress made to address the diagnostic needs in the European Union that will enable detection of these new viruses.
CDC has reported recent infections in children in North America with a swine-origin triple reassortant influenza A(H3N2) virus that includes a genetic component from the pandemic 2009 virus, and with probable human-to-human transmission with these viruses.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) infections are continuing to occur in poultry and humans in Egypt. However there is no evidence of a significant change in the pattern of human illness and deaths related to A(H5N1) virus infections in the country. Certainly there are no epidemiological data or analyses consistent with adaptation of these viruses to humans.
Australia has reported a cluster of oseltamivir-resistant influenza A(H1N1)2009 cases in the state of New South Wales. The cases had no known link to oseltamivir exposure and individuals were not immunosuppressed, but they were closely linked geographically. Samples from the cluster do not currently exhibit any resistance to zanamivir.
The increased reports of A(H5N1) outbreaks in poultry and wild bird populations, and the emergence of a further evolved lineage of the virus in poultry in some countries, do not change the current assessment of the risk to human health.
The 2010/11 seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe are dominated so far by the A(H1N1)2009 viruses which emerged in the 2009 pandemic, although these are now considered seasonal viruses. This is an interim risk assessment and will be up-dated at intervals as more data and analyses emerge.
This update of ECDC pandemic risk assessment for Europe is based on data and analyses available in early November 2009. It draws on the experience in European countries, North America and the Southern Hemisphere’s temperate countries, which have already passed through a winter with the new virus.