Rapid Risk Assessment: Outbreak of Ebola Virus disease in West Africa – 12th update, 1 July 2015
This is the 12th update of the rapid risk assessment on the outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa. It provides the latest figures on cases for the week 14-21 June 2015, re-assesses the risk of importation of Ebola virus disease into the EU and discusses options for risk reduction.
The 20 new confirmed cases reported in the week from 14 to 21 June indicate that the weekly incidence of new cases, which has levelled off over the last 10 weeks, remains unchanged.
Low intensity transmission continues due to incomplete contact tracing, inadequate case detection and management of new infections. The area of transmission has expanded slightly in recent weeks and, for the first time in several months, two healthcare workers were reported to have become infected. Cases continue to be reported from the capital cities of both Guinea and Sierra Leone. Cases are still occurring outside known transmission chains. Liberia was declared Ebola-free on 9 May 2015, however a new confirmed case was reported on Monday 29 June. This case has not yet been acknowledged by WHO.
Risk of EVD spreading in West Africa
The risk of EVD spreading to countries that share borders with Guinea and Sierra Leone remains high due to frequent cross-border movement of people and insufficient Ebola surveillance in the border areas. The rainy season, which started in April and usually lasts until November, makes transportation of staff and equipment difficult, and could further impair outbreak control efforts, particularly in hard-to-reach areas.
Possible risk of re-emergence of EVD transmission in countries with previous widespread transmission
Resurgence of the Ebola outbreak remains a possibility until all contacts of all cases have been identified and monitored for 21 days without developing symptoms. There is a risk that Ebola virus may be reintroduced and transmission re-established in areas that have been declared Ebola-free.
Failing to achieve zero cases in all regions of the two countries within the next few months could result in a low-intensity, persistent human-to-human epidemic in West Africa, with recurrent surges of intensified transmission. Another possible source for re-emergence of EVD transmission in countries where intense, widespread transmission has occurred and subsequently declined are through the animal reservoir or re-introduction through the importation of an infectious case.
Rapid risk assessment: Ebola virus disease outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo - sixth update
7 Aug 2019 - This is the sixth update of a rapid risk assessment originally produced on 9 August 2018. The update addresses the impact of active chains of Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission reported outside the outbreak’s epicentre, specifically in Goma, a provincial capital in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
Rapid risk assessment: Ebola virus disease outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo – fifth update
19 Jul 2019 - This is the fifth update of a rapid risk assessment originally produced on 9 August 2018. This rapid risk assessment addresses the potential public health impact of Ebola virus disease for EU/EEA countries and assesses the likelihood of international expansion.
Rapid risk assessment: Ebola virus disease outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of the Congo – fourth update
17 Apr 2019 - This is the fourth update of a rapid risk assessment originally produced on 9 August 2018. This rapid risk assessment addresses the public health risk associated with the current Ebola virus outbreak in the DRC and its implications for EU/EEA citizens. It was triggered by an increase of EVD transmission in the affected areas over recent weeks, the persistent occurrence of new cases among contacts unknown at the time of EVD diagnosis, the occurrence of a substantial number of cases outside of the ring vaccination contacts and current challenges for the prevention and control of EVD.