ECDC charts future path for public health resilience through strategic foresight
In early 2022, ECDC launched a comprehensive strategic foresight initiative to consider and prepare for future public health challenges. This multi-method approach aimed to strengthen ECDC’s resilience and preparedness by mapping plausible future scenarios and identifying actions to meet emerging threats. ECDC has now issued a report summarising the finding of the process, including a list of actions.
Despite the wide range of future scenarios considered, several recurring challenges emerged:
- Climate change
Every scenario highlighted the persistent or worsening impact of climate change. Rising temperatures and shifting ecosystems increase the risk of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases, as well as food- and waterborne illnesses. These realities underscore the need for integrated ‘One Health’ strategies that link human, animal, and environmental health. - Challenges to disease prevention
Implementing preventative measures like vaccination and health communication could become more difficult in a future marked by declining public trust, social fragmentation, and profit-driven disinterest in prevention. The spread of misinformation is expected to further complicate these efforts. - Demographic and social pressures
Population ageing, deepening social inequalities, and reduced access to healthcare could stress existing systems, creating fertile ground for infectious disease outbreaks. Vulnerable groups - such as older persons, socially disadvantaged people, and those with mental health conditions - will become more numerous and diverse. - Data and digital disruption
Technology and digitalisation will transform surveillance and healthcare and bring risks as well. While vast quantities of data may be available in some future scenarios, others may see restricted data access. Emerging technologies like Artificial Intelligence also present both opportunities and threats for disease monitoring and response. - Shifting governance models
Future changes in governance introduce broad uncertainties for public health authorities. The structure and influence of organisations like ECDC could be significantly affected.
Based on these findings, ECDC has outlined a set of robust, forward-looking actions designed to enhance long-term readiness:
- Strengthen communication and public engagement
Enhance outreach and messaging capabilities to strengthen public trust and ensure clear, timely communication across diverse populations.
- Expand data capabilities
Develop best practice and expertise to remain effective across a spectrum of data environments - from open access to restricted availability.
- Invest in specialised expertise
Allocate resources for dedicated teams in areas like climate change, behavioural science, health economics, data modelling, and artificial intelligence.
- Engage vulnerable communities
Foster relationships with local populations most at risk, ensuring advice is accessible, trusted, and actionable.
- Promote global collaboration
Deepen cooperation with peer organisations such as WHO and other public health bodies to build a resilient, interconnected response network across Europe and beyond.
The work summarised in this report is mainly intended for ECDC’s internal use to inform its strategic direction moving forward. Therefore, the report only summarises high-level outcomes of the detailed internal analyses, insights and considerations that arose from this foresight process. Nonetheless, the summarised output can be used by ECDC’s external partners and stakeholders for inspiration, information and action.
Read the report
Future challenges for infectious disease prevention and control
A strategic foresight approach to enhance European public health preparedness and resilience.
