RespiCast: the new European Respiratory Diseases Forecasting Hub
The European Respiratory Diseases Forecasting Hub (RespiCast) is open for weekly submission of several respiratory disease indicators such as influenza-like-illness, acute respiratory infection and COVID-19.
Launched at the end of 2023, RespiCast, the new European Respiratory Diseases Forecasting Hub serves as a platform for real-time forecasts of respiratory disease activity and burden.The goal of RespiCast is to provide decision-makers, public health bodies and the public with reliable and timely information on the short-term epidemiological trajectory of respiratory illnesses across Europe.
After ECDC established the COVID-19 Forecast hub, and the COVID-19 Scenario Modelling hub, RespiCast marks a significant advancement in forecasting capabilities for respiratory diseases, encompassing influenza-like-illness (ILI), acute respiratory infection (ARI), and COVID-19 indicators. This innovative hub brings together global expertise to address the complexities of respiratory disease dynamics.
Andrea Ammon, ECDC Director, highlights that "RespiCast will build on the collaborative approach of the existing COVID-19 hubs, bringing together global modelling teams, experts of diverse backgrounds, and public health decision makers. The results of this hub will support ECDC’s risk analysis, assessment of public health advice, and strategic planning for anticipatory action in the EU/EEA Member States."
Teams from across the globe are invited to actively contribute weekly forecasts, addressing various respiratory disease indicators and EU/EEA countries. These models leverage a wide range of infectious disease modelling approaches. Using state-of-the-art techniques, RespiCast harmonises individual predictions from diverse models to produce ensemble forecasts. This ensemble approach has proven effective in enhancing forecasting performance, especially within the complex and dynamic landscape of infectious diseases.
RespiCast goes beyond providing forecasts: it establishes a platform for participating modellers to connect with colleagues from across Europe and beyond. This inclusive approach cultivates a collaborative environment, fostering the exchange of insights and advancements in the prediction and modelling of respiratory diseases.
For more information on RespiCast and to participate in the collaborative effort to predict respiratory diseases dynamics in Europe, visit respicast.ecdc.europa.eu
This hub is a collaborative initiative developed with the support of the ISI Foundation and the Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases (CMMID) at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine