Impact of rotavirus vaccination on epidemiological dynamics in England and Wales

Atkins KE, Shim E, Pitzer VE, Galvani AP. Vaccine. 2011 Nov 28. [Epub ahead of print]

In pessimistic scenarios (vaccine immunity lasting for the same duration as a natural infection) vaccination can both reduce the annual incidence of severe RVGE by over 70% and delay the epidemic by two and a half months; in cases where complete vaccine immunity lasts for at least three years, the model predicts disease elimination for any RVGE in children under five years of age.

The issue of cost-effectiveness, however, is not developed in the article, and current cost-effectiveness evaluations in literature do not support the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in England and Wales (see: Jit M et al. The cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination: comparative analyses for five European countries and transferability in Europe. Vaccine 774 2009;27(44):6121–8).