Diverse groups of experts helped assess the relationships between drivers on an extended time-horizon: assessing either no connection, some connection or a strong connection between two drivers along any of their possible future trajectories. To further qualify these assessments, the experts had to account for their interpretation of the cumulative impact on infectious disease threats, as well as on the operations of public health institutions like ECDC, when making their assessments. Each possible driver combination was assessed from both perspectives, so in separate two-way evaluations. The key drivers show a high level of interconnectivity with no driver combination that was not considered notably connected, highlighting the high complexity of the operational environment of public health institutions.
Mapping of key driver trajectory interactions
Visual representation of the strongly interconnected key drivers of future change for infectious disease prevention and control. In this network, ‘climate change’ and ‘pressure on natural resources and ecologies’, as well as ‘international migration and travel’ and ‘inequalities in access to healthcare’, are central nodes. This means that developments in these areas will have the strongest impact on changes in the whole public health system. However, all drivers are somehow interconnected to the whole network and will therefore pose complex challenges to disease prevention and control.
