Key facts
- Since the last update on 28 May 2025, and as of 27 June 2025, XFG was added as a variant under monitoring (VUM), and KP.3 (formerly VOI) and XEC (formerly VUM) were de-escalated.
- Note that for this update, sufficient data for estimating variant proportions during the reporting weeks is only available from 3 EU/EEA countries. The statistics below therefore only represent a limited part of the EU/EEA.
- The VOI and VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 23-24, based on 3 reporting countries, are currently:
- BA.2.86 (VOI): 22.6% (range: range: 14.0%-26.7%)
- LP.8.1 (VUM): 32.4% (range: 26.7%-35.5%)
- NB.1.8.1 (VUM): 9.7% (range: 8.9%-13.3%)
- XFG (VUM): 33.3% (range: 25.8%-39.7%)
Overview
Since the last update on 28 May 2025, and as of 27 June 2025, the following changes have been made to
ECDC variant classifications for variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), variants under monitoring (VUM) and De-escalated variants:
- XFG was added as a variant under monitoring (VUM)
- KP.3 (formerly VOI) was de-escalated
- XEC (formerly VUM) was de-escalated
XFG is a descendent of LF.7, which in turn descended from BA.2.86 sub-lineage JN.1. VUM classification is based on evidence of an increased growth rate, relative to other circulating variants, globally, and in the EU/EEA. While this VUM classification serves to highlight the evolution of a SARS-CoV-2 variant that is outcompeting other strains, it is too early to assess if XFG will have any substantial epidemiological impact in the EU/EEA, with current SARS-CoV-2 circulation at low levels. There is currently no evidence of increased severity for XFG and no significant impact on vaccine effectiveness against severe disease is anticipated for currently available vaccines, although further laboratory and clinical studies are awaited [1].
The VOI median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 23-24, based on 3 reporting countries, are currently:
BA.2.86: 22.6% (3 reporting countries, range: 14.0%-26.7%, IQR:18.3%-24.6%)
The VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 23-24, based on 3 reporting countries, are currently:
LP.8.1: 32.4% (range: 26.7%-35.5%, IQR: 29.5%-33.9%)
NB.1.8.1: 9.7% (range: 8.9%-13.3%, IQR: 9.3%-11.5%)
XFG: 33.3% (range: 25.8%-39.7%, IQR: 29.6%-36.5%)
The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID, as of 22 June 2025. Note that for this update, sufficient data for estimating variant proportions during the reporting weeks is only available from three EU/EEA countries. The statistics therefore only represent a limited part of the EU/EEA.
ECDC assessment
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation.
The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection plus vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. The variants currently circulating that are classified as VOI or VUM are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared with previously circulating variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older individuals, those with underlying conditions, and individuals who have previously not been infected could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Vaccination of individuals at high risk of severe outcomes (e.g. older adults) remains important.
Actions
In order to assess the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineages and their possible correlation with increases in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators, it is important that countries sequence positive clinical specimens and report to GISAID and/or TESSy.
For the latest update on SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications, please see ECDC's webpage on variants. Variant surveillance data, including the distribution of VOC and VOI variant proportions in the EU/EEA and detailed country-specific COVID-19 updates are available as part of the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS).
Routine updates on the SARS-CoV-2 variant classification through the Communicable Diseases Threats Report (CDTR) will be provided on a monthly basis at a minimum.