Key facts
Since the last update on 27 September 2024, and as of 25 October 2024, no changes have been made to ECDC's variant classifications for variants of concern (VOCs), variants of interest (VOIs), variants under monitoring (VUMs), and de-escalated variants.
The VOI median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 40-41, based on 8 reporting countries are currently:
KP.3: 59.5% (range: 39.8%-72.7%, IQR: 51.1%-62.9%)
BA.2.86: 17.6% (range: 5.5%-32.7%, IQR: 13.9%-23.7%)
The VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 40-41, based on 8 reporting countries are:
XEC: 24.5% (range: 13.8%-29.1%, IQR: 20.2%-27.8%)
The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID, as of 21 October 2024.
The variants currently circulating that are classified as VOI or VUM are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared to previously circulating variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older individuals, those with underlying conditions, and previously uninfected individuals could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Vaccination of individuals at high risk of severe outcomes (such as older people) remains important.
Overview
Since the last update on 27 September 2024, and as of 25 October 2024, no changes have been made to ECDC's variant classifications for variants of concern (VOCs), variants of interest (VOIs), variants under monitoring (VUMs), and de-escalated variants.
The VOI median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 40-41, based on 8 reporting countries are currently:
KP.3: 59.5% (range: 39.8%-72.7%, IQR: 51.1%-62.9%)
BA.2.86: 17.6% (range: 5.5%-32.7%, IQR: 13.9%-23.7%)
The VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 40-41, based on 8 reporting countries are:
XEC: 24.5% (range: 13.8%-29.1%, IQR: 20.2%-27.8%)
The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID, as of 21 October 2024.
ECDC assessment
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation. The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection + vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. The variants currently circulating that are classified as VOI or VUM are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared to previously circulating variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older individuals, those with underlying conditions, and previously uninfected individuals could develop severe symptoms, if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Vaccination of individuals at high risk of severe outcomes (such as older people) remains important.
Actions
In order to assess the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineages and their possible correlation with increases in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators, it is important that countries sequence positive clinical specimens and report to GISAID and/or TESSy.
For the latest update on SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications, please see ECDC's webpage on variants. Variant surveillance data, including the distribution of VOC and VOI variant proportions in the EU/EEA and detailed country-specific COVID-19 updates are available as part of the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS).
Routine updates on the SARS-CoV-2 variant classification through the Communicable Diseases Threats Report will be provided on a monthly basis as a minimum.