Key facts
- Since the last update on 25 September 2026, and as of 30 October 2026, no changes have been made to ECDC variant classifications for variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), variants under monitoring (VUM) or de-escalated variants.
- For this update, sufficient data to estimate variant proportions in the most recent reporting weeks were only available from six EU/EEA countries. Therefore, the statistics below represent a limited part of the EU/EEA.
- The VOI and VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 41-42, 2026 were:
- BA.2.86 (VOI): 21.6% (range: 8.3%-40.0%, IQR: 21.2%-27.9%)
- NB.1.8.1 (VUM): 5.1% (range: 2.8%-10.0%, IQR: 4.4%-6.4%)
- XFG (VUM): 61.6% (range: 40.0%-70.8%, IQR: 54.3%-64.6%)
- BA.3.2 (VUM): 0.0% (range: 0.0%-0.0%, IQR: 0.0%-0.0%).
Overview
Since the last update on 25 September 2026, and as of 30 October 2026, no changes have been made to ECDC variant classifications for variants of concern (VOC), variants of interest (VOI), variants under monitoring (VUM) or de-escalated variants.
VOI median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 41-42, based on six reporting countries:
BA.2.86 (VOI): 21.6% (range: 8.3%-40.0%, IQR: 21.2%-27.9%).
VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 41-42 2026, based on six reporting countries:
NB.1.8.1 (VUM): 5.1% (range: 2.8%-10.0%, IQR: 4.4%-6.4%)
XFG (VUM): 61.6% (range: 40.0%-70.8%, IQR: 54.3%-64.6%)
BA.3.2 (VUM): 0.0% (range: 0.0%-0.0%, IQR: 0.0%-0.0%).
The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID, as of 25 October 2026. It should be noted that for this update sufficient data to estimate variant proportions in the most recent reporting weeks were only available from six EU/EEA countries. The statistics therefore only represent a very limited part of the EU/EEA.
ECDC assessment
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation.
The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection plus vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. Compared with previously circulating variants, the variants currently circulating that are classified as VOI or VUM are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older adults (65 years old and above), those with underlying conditions, and people who have previously not been infected could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Vaccination of people at high risk of severe outcomes (e.g. older adults) remains important.
Actions
In order to assess the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineages and their possible correlation with increases in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators, it is important that countries sequence positive clinical specimens and report to GISAID and/or TESSy.
For the latest update on SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications, please see ECDC's webpage on variants. Variant surveillance data, including the distribution of VOC and VOI proportions in the EU/EEA and detailed country-specific COVID-19 updates, are available as part of the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS).
Routine updates on the SARS-CoV-2 variant classification will be provided on a monthly basis through the Communicable Diseases Threats Report (CDTR) as a minimum.