Key facts
Since the last update on 31 May 2024, and as of 28 June 2024, the following changes have been made to ECDC's variant classifications for variants of concern (VOCs), variants of interest (VOIs), variants under monitoring (VUMs), and de-escalated variants:
- XBB.1.5-like lineages are de-escalated from a VOI since they are no longer circulating or circulating in very low numbers in EU/EEA countries.
- BA.2.86 lineages with additional spike protein mutations R346T or F456L have been classified as variants under monitoring (VUM), due to the potential impact of these mutations on immune evasion. This is in addition to the previously classified VUM BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L.
Currently, for weeks 23-24, BA.2.86 + F456L is circulating in the EU/EEA at a median of 90.4% (range: 82.7%-96.3%, IQR: 83.4%-93.8%), BA.2.86 + R346T is circulating at a median of 44.4% (range: 28.8%-56.6%, IQR: 30.3%-50.0%) and BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L is circulating at a median of 43.7% (range: 27.3%-55.4%, IQR: 28.8%-43.8%). The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID from 5 reporting countries as of 24 June 2024.
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation. The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection + vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. BA.2.86 + F456L, BA.2.86 + R346T and BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L variants are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared to previously circulating BA.2.86 variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older individuals, those with underlying conditions, and previously uninfected individuals could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Protection of individuals at high risk of severe outcomes (such as older individuals) with vaccination remains important.
Overview
Since the last update on 31 May 2024, and as of 28 June, the following changes have been made to ECDC's variant classifications for variants of concern (VOCs), variants of interest (VOIs), variants under monitoring (VUMs), and de-escalated variants:
- XBB.1.5-like lineages are de-escalated from a VOI a de-escalated variants since they are no longer circulating or circulating in very low numbers in EU/EEA countries.
- BA.2.86 lineages with additional spike protein mutations R346T or F456L have been classified as variants under monitoring (VUM), due to the potential impact of these mutations on immune evasion. This is in addition to the previously classified VUM BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L.
Currently, for weeks 23-24, BA.2.86 + F456L is circulating in the EU/EEA at a median of 90.4% (range: 82.7%-96.3%, IQR: 83.4%-93.8%), BA.2.86 + R346T is circulating at a median of 44.4% (range: 28.8%-56.6%, IQR: 30.3%-50.0%) and BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L is circulating at a median of 43.7% (range: 27.3%-55.4%, IQR: 28.8%-43.8%). The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID from 5 reporting countries as of 24 June 2024.
ECDC assessment
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation. The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection + vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. BA.2.86 + F456L, BA.2.86 + R346T and BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L variants are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared to previously circulating BA.2.86 variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older individuals, those with underlying conditions, and previously uninfected individuals could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Protection of individuals at high risk for severe outcomes (such as older individuals) with vaccination remains important.
Actions
Following a long period of low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, there are signals of increased SARS-CoV-2 detection in primary and secondary care in the EU/EEA. In order to assess the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineages, such as BA.2.86 + R346T + F456L, and their possible correlation with increases in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators, it is important that countries sequence positive clinical specimens and report to GISAID and/or TESSy.
For the latest update on SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications, please see ECDC's webpage on variants. Variant surveillance data, including the distribution of VOC and VOI variant proportions in the EU/EEA and detailed country-specific COVID-19 updates are available as part of the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS).
Routine updates on the SARS-CoV-2 variant classification through the Communicable Diseases Threats Report will be provided on a monthly basis as a minimum.