Overview of available modelling evidence to inform the scale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus in the current Ebola disease outbreak
Assessment
This assessment presents an overview and critical appraisal of the available modelling evidence to inform the scale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus (BDBV) in the context of the ongoing Ebola disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda.
Key findings
- So far in the current outbreak of Ebola disease caused by Bundibugyo virus, international modelling efforts have focused on estimating the outbreak size and near-term trajectories, as well as the risk of regional and international spread.
- Multiple modelling groups suggest that the true size of the outbreak is larger than reported. One model estimated that cumulative infections as of 13 June were between 3.0 and 10.2 times the reported number of cases (90% credible interval).
- Epistorm estimated the relative risk of importation to be highest for Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya, which together account for approximately 54% of the relative risk. ECDC has estimated the risk of importation into the EU/EEA to be low.
- The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published scenario modelling analysis results that estimated a 65% probability that the outbreak will exceed 20 000 cases within three months under a scenario where 20% of individuals with Bundibugyo virus infection were isolated and no other interventions were implemented.
- Current modelling estimates are highly uncertain due to data limitations. Multiple epidemic trajectories remain compatible with the available surveillance data, limiting confidence in estimates of outbreak size and future trends.
Publication file
Overview of available modelling evidence to inform the scale and potential spread of Bundibugyo virus in the current Ebola disease outbreak
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