Key facts
- Since the last update on 28 November 2025, and as of 30 January 2026, BA.3.2 has been added to the list of variants under monitoring (VUM).
- For this update, sufficient data for estimating variant proportions during the reporting weeks are only available from five EU/EEA countries. Therefore, the statistics below only represent a limited part of the EU/EEA.
- The VOI and VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 2-3 2026 are currently:
- BA.2.86 (VOI): 0.0% (range: 0.0%-14.3%,IQR: 0.0%-6.7%)
- NB.1.8.1 (VUM): 23.1% (range: 0.0%-28.6%,IQR: 20.0%-27.3%)
- XFG (VUM): 47.6% (range: 23.1%-100.0%,IQR: 27.3%-50.0%)
- BA.3.2 (VUM): 6.7% (range: 0.0%-46.2%, IQR: 0.0%-45.5%)
Overview
Since the last update on 28 November 2025, and as of 30 January 2026, BA.3.2 has been added to the list of variants under monitoring (VUM). An increase in detections of BA.3.2 has been observed in two EU/EEA countries, with the variant circulating at a proportion > 40% in Germany and the Netherlands in week 1, 2026. However, estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty due to low levels of SARS-CoV-2 circulation and sequence depositions. Notably, BA.3.2 features 44 mutations relative to BA.2.86 sub-lineages LP.8.1/LP.8.1.1 and antigenic cartography suggests it is antigenically distant from other Omicron variants. However, preliminary studies show that JN.1- and LP.8.1-adapted booster vaccines effectively induce broad humoral immunity in humans against currently circulating JN.1 subvariants (including XFG) and BA.3.2. There is no evidence of increased severity for BA.3.2 when compared to previously circulating variants and surveillance indicators thus far indicate that replacement of XFG—which currently dominates in the EU/EEA—by BA.3.2 is unlikely to have a significant epidemiological impact.
The VOI median proportion in the EU/EEA for weeks 2-3 2026, based on five reporting countries, are currently:
BA.2.86: 0.0% (range: 0.0%-14.3%,IQR: 0.0%-6.7%)
The VUM median proportions in the EU/EEA for weeks 2-3, based on five reporting countries, are currently:
NB.1.8.1: 23.1% (range: 0.0%-28.6%,IQR: 20.0%-27.3%)
XFG: 47.6% (range: 23.1%-100.0%,IQR: 27.3%-50.0%)
BA.3.2: 6.7% (range: 0.0%-46.2%, IQR: 0.0%-45.5%)
The calculations are based on data reported to GISAID, as of 27 January 2026. Note that for this update, sufficient data for estimating variant proportions during the reporting weeks are only available from five EU/EEA countries. The statistics therefore only represent a very limited part of the EU/EEA.
ECDC assessment
Low SARS-CoV-2 transmission, reduced reporting and low testing volumes in sentinel systems all have an impact on ECDC’s ability to accurately assess the epidemiological situation, including variant circulation.
The EU/EEA population overall has a significant level of hybrid immunity (prior infection plus vaccination/boosters), conferring protection against severe disease. The variants currently circulating that are classified as VOI or VUM are unlikely to be associated with any increase in infection severity compared with previously circulating variants, or a reduction in vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. However, older adults (aged 65 years old and above), those with underlying conditions, and people who have previously not been infected could develop severe symptoms if infected. Vaccination continues to be protective, with stronger protection against more severe disease, although this protective effect wanes over time. Vaccination of people at high risk of severe outcomes (e.g. older adults) remains important.
Actions
In order to assess the impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 sub-lineages and their possible correlation with increases in COVID-19 epidemiological indicators, it is important that countries sequence positive clinical specimens and report to GISAID and/or TESSy.
For the latest update on SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications, please see ECDC's webpage on variants. Variant surveillance data, including the distribution of VOC and VOI proportions in the EU/EEA and detailed country-specific COVID-19 updates are available as part of the European Respiratory Virus Surveillance Summary (ERVISS).
Routine updates on the SARS-CoV-2 variant classification through the Communicable Diseases Threats Report (CDTR) will be provided on a monthly basis at a minimum.