Expert meeting on Chikungunya Modelling

Meeting report

This April 2008 meeting brought together modellers, entomologists and public health officials from several European countries. During the discussions, it became apparent that chikungunya outbreaks can be modelled either by using an epidemic model integrated in the calculations, or by analysing raw data. Additional model development is needed to include the effects of imposed interventions in the models and to assess how interventions are related to the size of the mosquito population. Data related to the vector are still sparse. Some models have entirely bypassed the vector and estimated seasonality from an epidemic curve, or have included an estimated seasonal vector density. In order to provide more precise calculation results, the size of the vector population needs to be determined and human cases have to be included.