ECDC hosts workshop on mathematical modelling for public health threats

The workshop gathered participants from national public health institutes and ministries of health of the EU’s Southern and Eastern Neighbourhood countries, with representatives from Algeria, Egypt, Israel (online), Jordan, Lebanon (online), Libya, Palestine, Morocco, Tunisia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Moldova.

The event fostered collaboration and provided a platform for sharing knowledge and experiences on the use of mathematical modelling applications to strengthen public health preparedness and response to cross-border health threats.

The training aimed to equip non-modellers from the EU’s Southern and Eastern Neighbourhood countries with the key components and modelling concepts of infectious disease transmission and control, focusing on how modelling can inform and improve public health decisions.

The first day included an introduction to core infectious disease models, such as SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) and SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered). Participants engaged in practical exercises to interpret these models and understand how key epidemiological concepts influence disease dynamics. Attendees also explored how models can guide policy decisions in managing disease outbreaks.

The focus of the second day was on interpreting modelling outputs, with a special session on insights from Spain’s experience in infectious disease modelling. Participants examined real-world applications of modelling results and discussed ways to effectively communicate these findings to policy-makers. The day concluded with a discussion on the limitations and strengths of models, data needs, and future trends in the field.

This in-person training workshop is part of ongoing work by ECDC to contribute to enhancing the public health preparedness and response capacities of the countries in the EU’s neighbouring regions in order to help address serious health threats.

Background

The workshop was organised under the EU Initiative on Health Security, funded by DG NEAR. This initiative aims to establish a regional workforce responsible for preventing and controlling the challenges posed by communicable diseases and enhancing regional cooperation to tackle cross-border health security threats in EU candidate and potential candidate countries and European Neighbourhood Policy partner countries.