HIV Modelling Tool

Tools for public health

How many people are getting infected with HIV, how many are being missed or not being reported and how many should be on treatment ECDC’s HIV Modelling Tool helps to understand local HIV epidemics by providing better estimates based on surveillance data.

Version: 1.3.0


HIV Modelling Tool v1.3.0 - EN - [ZIP-4.12 MB]
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The ECDC HIV Platform tool now provides a newer and integrated version of the HIV Modelling and HIV Estimates Accuracy Tools. The HIV Platform Tool can be accessed here:

The HIV Modelling Tool is an application which uses evidence-based methods to calculate HIV incidence in a given population.

With this tool you can estimate: 


• the number of people living with HIV, including those not yet diagnosed;

• the annual number of new HIV infections;

• the average time between infection and diagnosis;

• the number of people in need of treatment according to CD4 cell counts.


Before downloading

Two Microsoft packages must be installed prior to running the tool:

1. Microsoft .Net Framework 4.5.1 or later

This version is included in Windows 8.1 by default.

2. Visual C++ Redistributable Packages for Visual Studio 2017 (version x86)

Choose file ‘vcredist_x86.exe’ even for 64-bit versions of Windows. 



The software is distributed as a ‘zip’ archive and requires only a few simple installation steps requiring no computer administration rights:

  • Create a folder in which to install the tool, for example C:\My Documents\HIVModellingTool.
  • Download ‘zip’ file into the folder you created.
  • To unzip, right-click on the file and select ‘Extract here’ .
  • The tool zip package contains 6 files in the root folder: one executable ‘HivModellingGui.exe’ and five auxiliary library files with extension ‘dll’:


To verify data integrity:

MD5 checksum


SHA1 checksum




HIV continues to be of significant public health importance in the European Union as well as globally. To evaluate and direct prevention efforts, it is crucial to understand the pattern of new HIV infections, or HIV incidence, among groups most at risk of infection. It is also important to estimate the size of the total population of persons living with HIV, including those that are not yet diagnosed, in order to understand the burden of HIV and the need for antiretroviral treatment and other HIV-related care.  


Input datasets

Before using the tool the datasets need to be prepared in CSV files and arranged in such a way that the tool is able to read the data. A detailed description on how to prepare the datasets can be consulted in the manual. You will also find information on which datasets, including specific epidemiological data such as number of HIV diagnosis, CD4 count, are necessary for the tool to analyse the data and to model the outputs.  


Manual and more information

A complete instruction manual will guide you through the basics of the ECDC HIV Modelling Tool including technical details, how to start and use the tool and to prepare the datasets. The manual can also be consulted to interpret the outputs of the tool and to aid in the selection of some parameters using clear and well instructed examples.



ECDC accepts no responsibility or liability whatsoever (including but not limited to any direct or consequential loss or damage it might occur to you and/or any other third party) arising out of or in connection with the installation and/or usage of this software.

Copyright © European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, 2017. 


Suggested citation

ECDC HIV Modelling Tool [software application]. Version 1.3.0 Stockholm: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control; 2017. Available from:



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Page last updated: 8 Jan 2018