This risk assessment presents the latest available information on the recent emergence of three variants of concern, VOC 202012/01 identified in the United Kingdom (UK), 501Y.V2 identified in South Africa, and P.1 identified in Brazil and Japan.

This risk assessment presents the latest available information on the recent emergence of two variants of potential concern, VOC 202012/01 discovered in the United Kingdom (UK) and another variant, 501.V2 identified in South Africa. It also assesses the risk of these variants of concern being introduced and spread in the EU/EEA, as well as the increased impact this would have on health systems in the coming weeks.

Surveillance data gathered since 1 October 2014 indicate that in the first ten weeks of the 2014–15 influenza season, viruses in EU/EEA countries have been predominantly A(H3N2) rather than A(H1N1)pdm09 and type B viruses.

ECDC produces an annual risk assessment for the seasonal influenza epidemics in Europe. This is following both a recommendation in the report on the handling of the 2009 pandemic adopted by the World Health Assembly in May 2011 and the model developed by ECDC during that pandemic. The first EU seasonal influenza risk assessment was published in January 2011, following the start of the influenza season in late November 2010. In 2012, the season started later than in most years, with the first five countries exceeding their epidemic threshold in week 3/2012.

Likely scenarios and uncertainties in the 2010/2011 influenza season in Europe and beyond.